Overview

• Speaking in Philadelphia, Jerome Powell said the economic outlook looks little changed since September and noted growth may be on a firmer track based on data available before the shutdown.
• Investors largely expect quarter-point reductions at the Oct. 28–29 and December meetings, with futures implying very high odds for both moves.
• Powell highlighted rising downside risks to employment and maintained that policy decisions will be guided by evolving risks rather than a preset path.
• A government shutdown has delayed key official statistics, so the Fed is leaning on private indicators, with a CPI update still slated for release on Oct. 24.
• Fed officials Michelle Bowman and Anna Paulson backed the prospect of two additional cuts this year, arguing tariff-driven price pressures look less persistent than broad inflation.