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Bond Yield Surge Sharpens Fiscal Relief Clash in Japan’s Upper House Election

With voting set for July 20, ruling parties are blaming opposition’s unfunded tax-cut pledges for driving up government borrowing costs.

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Overview

  • Ruling coalition proposes one-time cash payments of ¥40,000 for children and resident-tax-exempt adults and ¥20,000 for other adults, while opposition parties call for a temporary zero consumption tax on food to ease household budgets.
  • Long-term 10-year Japanese government bond yields have climbed this week as investors worry that fiscal expansion from tax cuts could worsen Japan’s debt outlook.
  • Komeito leader Saito warned that unfunded tax-cut promises are boosting borrowing costs and cautioned that higher interest payments could crowd out other government spending.
  • Constitutional Democratic Party leader Noda and National Democratic Party’s Tamaki rebutted that their tax-cut plans include specified funding sources and are not directly linked to bond-market fluctuations.
  • A recent Mainichi poll found 55% of voters support consumption tax relief compared with 16% who back cash handouts, highlighting public preference for targeted tax cuts.