Overview

• After an early‑week sell‑off, government bonds rallied on Friday as a sharp slowdown in U.S. job growth boosted expectations for faster Fed easing ahead of the Sept. 16–17 meeting.
• The U.S. Treasury term premium rose to 84 basis points on Tuesday, its highest in more than three months, signaling greater compensation demanded for holding long‑dated debt.
• Market participants caution that steepening yield curves could give way to disorderly moves as concerns persist over deficits, potential inflation and the trajectory of U.S. debt.
• Political actions have intensified worries about Fed independence, with President Trump pressuring for rate cuts, nominating Stephen Miran to the Fed board and attempting to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who has sued to contest the effort.
• Long‑duration yields remain near multi‑year peaks globally, with the U.S. 30‑year briefly above 5% and the U.K. 30‑year touching its highest level since 1998 before easing, while Japan’s super‑long yields have climbed this year.