Overview
- Australia’s long‑range forecast points to warmer‑than‑average days and nights across most states with below‑average summer rainfall likely in large areas of the west and inland east.
- The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a weak, likely short‑lived La Niña, with forecasters noting other climate drivers are limiting prospects for a wetter summer in the east.
- AFAC’s seasonal outlook flags heightened fire risk for parts of Victoria, southern and western Western Australia, and central‑northern New South Wales due to accumulated fuels and drying conditions.
- Specific WA hotspots include the Yalgoo, Geraldton Sandplains, Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, Esperance Plains and Mallee, where increased surface fuels and warmer conditions raise concern.
- In NSW, conditions have already escalated with a catastrophic danger rating in the Lower Central West Plains, total fire bans, more than 20 school closures and crews battling dozens of fires, prompting urgent preparedness messages.