Overview

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook gives a 60–80% chance of above‑average rainfall for much of eastern and parts of central Australia from September to November.
• Winter was sharply split regionally, with Sydney logging its third wettest August since 1858 and Perth recording its wettest winter since 1996, while inland NSW, the Melbourne area and much of Tasmania were drier than average.
• Sea surface temperatures around Australia, including the Tasman Sea at about 2 degrees above average in places, are boosting atmospheric moisture that can fuel rain and storms.
• ENSO conditions remain neutral but are trending toward La Niña in some models, and the near‑negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to favour more northwest cloudbands and rain events.
• AFAC warns of elevated bushfire risk this spring in parts of Victoria and Western Australia due to long‑term rainfall deficits and dry deep soils, even as a wetter pattern is forecast for the east.