Overview

• The Bureau’s first long-range forecast to end-February points to widespread heat, with a 60–80% chance of above-average daytime temperatures across much of Australia.
• Overnight warmth shows the strongest signal, with greater than an 80% chance of unusually high minimums in some areas, raising health and infrastructure concerns.
• Sea surface temperatures remain at or near record highs and are expected to persist, providing extra moisture and energy that can enhance severe storms and cyclones when systems develop.
• Rainfall is likely above average in November for northern and eastern regions, while the summer outlook remains undecided for most areas except a wetter lean for far north Queensland and WA’s Wheatbelt.
• Drying soils in parts of NSW, Victoria and central/southern Queensland raise bushfire risk ahead of a formal outlook due late November, as Weatherzone warns several states could challenge October heat records with mid-40s temperatures early this week.