Overview
- The Bureau of Meteorology says the tropical low north of the Tiwi Islands is expected to become a cyclone by Thursday morning and intensify to category 2 by Thursday night.
- Forecast guidance shows the system moving northeast over the Timor–Arafura seas, then taking a southerly turn on Friday with a possible southwest track toward areas including Darwin over the weekend, with its exact path still uncertain.
- BOM assigns about a 60 percent chance of cyclone formation between late Thursday and late Friday morning, with a high probability continuing into early next week.
- Heavy rain and damaging winds are expected regardless of final intensity, with 228 mm recorded in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin in recent days.
- NT Emergency Service urges residents to prepare 72‑hour kits and shelter plans as sea surface temperatures near 30–31°C favor development, though BOM is not currently expecting category 3 strength.