Overview

• Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a 4–1 ruling and sentenced him to 27 years and three months, while also finding seven allies guilty on multiple counts including a coup attempt that prosecutors said involved plans to kill President-elect Lula and a Supreme Court justice.
• Justice Luiz Fux dissented, calling the evidence tying Bolsonaro to the January 8 attacks weak and arguing the case should have gone to the full 11-justice bench rather than a five-judge panel overseen by Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
• Bolsonaro remains under house arrest and is expected to appeal; he has already been barred from elected office for eight years by a 2023 Superior Electoral Court decision.
• The United States has escalated pressure with 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports and Global Magnitsky sanctions on Justice Moraes and other justices, while senior officials threaten additional measures as Brasília asserts judicial independence and sovereignty.
• Religious and political polarization has intensified, with conservative Catholic leaders rallying in high-profile events and opposition figures positioning for 2026, even as congressional allies explore an amnesty push seen as unlikely to succeed.