Overview
- Flávio Bolsonaro won plurality support in the first round with 47.03% versus Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.16%, sending the contest to a runoff on October 25.
- Bolsonaro’s campaign moved quickly to add conservative endorsements and court key centrão parties to consolidate votes ahead of the second round.
- A Supreme Court judge has signaled willingness to review Jair Bolsonaro’s 27‑year conviction if Flávio wins, and a presidential pardon would become possible if Flávio takes office, raising fresh constitutional tension.
- Lula’s team has shifted to targeted advertising and a get‑out‑the‑vote effort focused on the roughly 33 million abstentionist and undecided voters who could decide the runoff.
- Markets responded positively to the rightward shift and analysts forecast a near‑term strengthening of the real that could cut Argentine export costs and boost tourism for provinces like Mendoza.