Overview

• Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet presented a 517-page closing argument on July 15 accusing Bolsonaro of heading an armed criminal organization to overturn the 2022 election
• The indictment cites recordings, handwritten notes and digital communications documenting alleged plans to poison President Lula and attack federal institutions
• Bolsonaro and his co-defendants have a 15-day window to file rebuttals before a five-justice panel votes on convictions or acquittals later this year
• President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods tied to the trial has drawn public objections from STF President Barroso and President Lula over foreign pressure on the judiciary
• The outcome will test Brazil’s capacity to hold a former head of state accountable and reinforce the independence of its democratic institutions