Overview

• Luis Arce stepped aside, nominating former minister Eduardo del Castillo, and a deep rift with Evo Morales has fractured the MAS, leaving its candidate stranded in low single-digit polling.
• Voters frustrated by inflation approaching 25%, depleted foreign-exchange reserves and periodic fuel shortages have turned against the party after two decades in power.
• AtlasIntel polling puts conservative ex-president Jorge Quiroga at about 22% and centrist Samuel Doria Medina at 18%, with no candidate securing an outright majority and an October runoff almost certain.
• Evo Morales was barred from running by electoral authorities and is campaigning covertly from the jungle while urging supporters to cast null or blank ballots to contest the results.
• Armed Conflict Location & Event Data records at least 42 campaign-related violent incidents and eight deaths, prompting authorities to deploy extra security over concerns of post-vote unrest.