Overview

• First-round voting on August 17 is forecast to fall short of a majority, activating an October 19 runoff for the presidency under the 2009 constitution.
• Conservative contenders Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga lead polls at about 20% each, promising privatizations and subsidy cuts.
• The ruling MAS has fractured after years of Arce–Morales power struggles, leaving leftist Andrónico Rodríguez behind the front-runners and official candidate Eduardo Del Castillo under 3%.
• Evo Morales, barred by courts, has urged supporters to submit invalid ballots and warned of street mobilizations, heightening risks of post-election unrest.
• Fuel and dollar shortages, along with 25% inflation, have fueled public frustration and drawn global attention to Bolivia’s untapped lithium reserves.