Overview

• Polls published August 11–12 place center-right Samuel Doria Medina at about 21% and right-wing Jorge Quiroga near 20%, pointing to an October 19 runoff if results hold.
• Bolivia’s harsh economic crisis, with annual inflation close to 25% and shortages of dollars, fuel and food, has eroded support for the incumbent Movement toward Socialism.
• The MAS is fractured after President Luis Arce withdrew his bid for re-election and internal rivalries between Arce loyalists and Evo Morales supporters intensified.
• Exiled in Chapare and barred by term limits, Evo Morales is urging a null vote—currently estimated at 14.6%—and warning of potential street mobilizations.
• Both frontrunners advocate a “shock” economic plan centered on deep public-spending cuts and expanded private investment to replace the MAS statist model.