Overview

• Recent polls show Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga each polling around 20 percent and leading a crowded field with no candidate nearing the threshold for a first-round victory.
• The official MAS nominee, Eduardo del Castillo, remains below 5 percent in voting intentions while Andrónico Rodríguez’s bid with Alianza Popular has failed to unite the divided left.
• Approximately 30 percent of voters are undecided or inclined toward blank and null ballots, raising the possibility of a hidden surge or unexpected shifts on election day.
• Evo Morales has been ruled ineligible to run, faces detention orders and terrorism charges, and his base is campaigning for null votes and boycotts in the Chapare region.
• Leading candidates promise swift economic adjustments—ending fuel subsidies, seeking IMF support and privatizing state firms—to tackle 16.9 percent inflation, fuel shortages and a near 10 percent fiscal deficit.