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Bold Federal Pronatalist Proposals Confront Evidence of Limited Impact

Past subsidies have failed to reverse fertility declines, prompting calls for productivity and immigration reforms.

FILE - Volunteer Ydalina Luna Sosa, 62, of Providence, R.I., front left, uses a frog puppet for entertainment while supervising 10-month-old Leo Morgenweck, front right, in an early childcare program at Federal Hill House, Nov. 12, 2024, in Providence, R.I. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)
FILE - A doctor performs an ultrasound scan on a pregnant woman at a hospital in Chicago, Aug. 7, 2018. (AP Photo/Teresa Crawford, File)
FILE - Delaney Griffin, center, plays with toddlers at the child care center where she works, March 13, 2024, in Lexington, Ky. (AP Photo/Dylan Lovan, File)
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Overview

  • Lawmakers are advancing sweeping family-support measures, including a 100 percent tax exemption for parents, guaranteed mortgages for families with two or more children, housing priority and a full year of paid parental leave.
  • Analyses of Hungary’s baby bonuses and Scandinavia’s generous parental benefits show only modest timing shifts and no sustained increases once fertility falls below replacement.
  • Research by Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine finds that shifting adult priorities and career ambitions, rather than childcare costs, are the main drivers of persistently low birth rates.
  • Economists point to Japan’s two decades of population shrinkage alongside rising wages, record corporate profits and productivity investments as evidence that societies can adapt to smaller workforces.
  • Policy experts urge bolstering economic resilience through high-skilled immigration, labor-market reforms and automation to address aging populations and labor shortages.