Particle.news
Download on the App Store

BOK Warns of Chip-Led 2026 Growth and Misaligned Won as Rhee Urges Calibrated Policy

Excluding IT, Rhee pegs growth near 1.4 percent, underscoring the need for capital‑market reforms.

Overview

  • South Korea’s official 2026 growth forecast remains 1.8 percent, but Rhee says underlying growth would be about 1.4 percent without the IT and semiconductor upswing.
  • Rhee describes an uneven, K-shaped recovery and cautions that such a pattern is not sustainable, calling for efforts to diversify growth drivers.
  • The won’s recent level around 1,400–1,440 per dollar is described as far from fundamentals, with risks of higher inflation and pressure on domestically focused firms.
  • A surge in overseas equity investment by local residents is cited as a key factor distorting FX supply and demand, prompting a call for a comprehensive review of its impact, including the pension fund’s role.
  • The BOK will run policy in a more calibrated manner while monitoring inflation near 2.1 percent and housing, with Rhee stressing Korea’s sound external position and rejecting comparisons to past currency crises.