Overview

• The Bank of Japan will consider lifting its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year in response to sustained food price gains driven by rice cost surges.
• Underlying inflation excluding food and energy remains below the 2% target, tempering pressure for further monetary tightening.
• The central bank halted rate increases at 0.5% as it evaluates the economic impact of looming U.S. tariffs.
• Inflation has outpaced BOJ projections partly because higher rice prices have pushed up restaurant and dine-out costs.
• New growth and inflation projections will be unveiled after the July 30–31 policy meeting when the BOJ conducts its quarterly forecast review.