Overview
- The October 30 meeting left the policy rate at 0.5%, with two board members dissenting in favor of a hike to 0.75%.
- Eight of 13 opinions from the nine-member board called for a near-term increase or set conditions for one, according to the summary.
- Several policymakers emphasized that sustained corporate wage-setting must be confirmed before tightening further.
- One opinion said a hike is likely if global markets avoid negative shocks and firms keep raising pay, with higher U.S. tariffs at 15% noted as a pressure point.
- Market commentary points to a potential move as early as December 2025 or early 2026, and traders are watching wage data and board remarks for timing cues.