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BOJ Signals Rising Support for Near-Term Rate Hike in October Meeting Summary

Policymakers want confirmation that wage gains will persist before moving.

Overview

  • Eight of 13 policy opinions from the nine-member board backed a near-term increase or set conditions for one, according to the summary.
  • At the Oct. 29–30 meeting the BOJ kept the policy rate at 0.5%, though two members dissented in favor of raising it to 0.75%.
  • Governor Kazuo Ueda said he needs a bit more data to judge whether companies will keep lifting pay as firms face pressure from higher U.S. tariffs.
  • Some opinions said a hike would be likely if wage-setting remains active and no negative global or market shocks emerge.
  • A Reuters poll points to a move between December and end‑March, while government adviser Takuji Aida urged avoiding a December hike and waiting until at least January.