Overview

• Policy board member Asahi Noguchi said on Sept. 29 that the need to adjust policy rates has grown as Japan draws closer to the 2% price target.
• In his Sapporo speech, Noguchi cautioned that the impact of U.S. tariff measures remains unclear even as price risks tilt higher.
• The BOJ’s published main opinions from the Sept. 18–19 meeting show some members arguing the bank can return to a rate‑hike stance as tariff worries recede.
• One opinion highlighted that domestic real rates remain low relative to overseas levels and urged moving closer to a neutral rate to avoid sharper increases later.
• Other members favored holding rates and waiting for the Oct. 1 Tankan and upcoming corporate guidance before considering a change.