Overview

• Minutes from the BOJ’s July meeting indicate the bank would keep raising rates if growth and inflation evolve in line with its estimates.
• Former board member Seiji Adachi said an October hike cannot be ruled out, though he expects a hold until around March under a risk-focused approach.
• The BOJ kept its policy rate at 0.5% last week, with two board members dissenting in favor of 0.75%, which pushed government bond yields higher.
• Revised figures showed second-quarter GDP expanding at a 2.2% annualized pace, bolstering the case for forecast upgrades and inflation near the 2% goal.
• The Oct. 1 tankan survey and updated projections at the Oct. 29–30 meeting are seen as pivotal as policymakers weigh tariff impacts on wages and the outlook.