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BOJ Signals Gradual, Data-Dependent Rate Hikes If Outlook Holds

Ueda cast any tightening as easing off the accelerator, with the yen strengthening as he focused on wage momentum going into next year’s Shunto.

Overview

  • Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank of Japan remains on track to raise interest rates further if its projections for growth and inflation are realized, while keeping financial conditions broadly accommodative.
  • He said the probability of the BOJ’s baseline scenario being achieved is gradually increasing.
  • Ueda emphasized monitoring whether firms’ active wage-setting continues, highlighting momentum heading into the spring Shunto negotiations.
  • He described the recent dip into negative GDP growth as temporary and said overseas economies show some weakness but are gradually improving overall, with limited fallout so far from U.S. tariff policies.
  • The yen strengthened around Ueda’s speech, and traders increased bets on a possible rate move at the December 18–19 policy meeting.