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BOJ Signals Data-Dependent Path to Further Tightening in January Opinions Summary

Inflation persistence tied to wage dynamics and import pass-through guides the outlook.

Overview

  • The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from the Jan. 22–23 meeting judges the economy has regained moderate momentum, with uneven strength across sectors.
  • Policymakers expect consumer prices to keep rising at a moderate pace, with a weaker yen lifting import costs and wage–price interactions contributing to pressures.
  • Board members indicated further rate increases would be appropriate over time if the outlook holds, with no preset pace and decisions contingent on incoming data.
  • Financial conditions are still viewed as broadly accommodative despite December’s rate hike to the highest level in decades.
  • Volatility in long and super‑long Japanese government bond yields was flagged as a risk requiring close monitoring, and government representatives urged coordination with fiscal policy.