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BoE’s Bailey Flags Acute UK Growth Challenge as Labour Participation Lags

He said potential growth has fallen to just over 1%, making inflation harder to bring back to target.

Overview

  • Speaking in Jackson Hole, the governor said the Bank is prioritising labour-force participation over unemployment in assessing the outlook.
  • He cited rising long-term sickness and a sharp fall in young people in work, with mental health now the most common reason for inactivity.
  • The Bank recently lowered its estimate of the UK’s potential growth rate to just above 1% and linked weak supply to persistent inflation.
  • Policymakers cut the policy rate to 4% this summer but maintained warnings about inflation risks.
  • Official figures show GDP grew 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, while participation remains below pre-pandemic levels.