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Boeing Keeps 20-Year Demand Forecast and Says Delivery Shortfalls Will Persist

Production, supply‑chain, certification limits will keep deliveries below demand, which expands services markets, requiring millions of new aviation workers.

The Boeing logo on the doors to the Boeing factory in Renton, Washington, U.S., April 15, 2026.   REUTERS/Genna Martin

Overview

  • Boeing released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook on Friday and held a 20-year demand forecast of 43,625 new jetliners and freighters for 2026–2045.
  • The company estimates an undersupply of about 2,000 aircraft entering 2026 and says single-aisle shortages are unlikely to clear until the end of the decade with widebody shortfalls lasting into the early 2030s.
  • Boeing projects a $4.9 trillion commercial aviation support and services market through 2045 and forecasts demand for more than 2.4 million new aviation personnel.
  • The Pilot & Technician Outlook specifies roughly 674,000 pilots, 728,000 maintenance technicians and 1,023,000 cabin crew will be needed by 2045.
  • Boeing expects passenger traffic to slow to about 2.3% this year, rebound in 2027–28, and average roughly 4% annual growth over 20 years as the global fleet rises toward 50,000 aircraft and new‑generation jets grow to roughly 92% of the fleet.