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BoE Plans August Rate Cut Despite Inflation Jump; RBA Poised to Ease After Jobs Slump

Persistent price pressures in the UK alongside a surge in Australian unemployment test central banks’ resolve on monetary easing

Office workers walk the streets of Sydney, Australia December 7, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo
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The Bank of England is now expected to hold its base rate of interest at 4.25 per cent next month

Overview

  • UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.6% in June, the highest rate among G7 countries and the strongest since early 2024.
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the inflation figures ‘don’t seem enough’ to derail the planned cut from 4.25% to 4% in August.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets on July 8 by keeping its cash rate at 3.85% despite widespread expectations of a reduction.
  • Australian unemployment climbed to 4.3% in June—the highest since late 2021—while underemployment rose to 6% amid full-time job losses and part-time gains.
  • Financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut at the RBA’s August meeting as traders respond to signs of labour market weakness.