Overview

• Bailey said companies are responding to April’s rise in employer national insurance contributions by cutting pay and jobs rather than passing on costs through prices.
• HMRC data show payroll employment has fallen for seven consecutive months, with more than 100,000 jobs lost in May alone.
• Inflation ticked up to 3.4% in May, driven by food price spikes, creating uncertainty about the near-term trajectory of price growth.
• At June’s MPC meeting, six members voted to hold Bank Rate at 4.25% while three favoured a cut to 4%, setting the stage for an August policy review.
• The BoE expects UK economic growth to moderate in the coming quarters as firms absorb higher taxes and global trade disruptions pose upside and downside risks.