Overview
- Only around one-third of businesses now anticipate higher costs from U.S. tariffs, down from roughly two-thirds in the previous quarter.
- The business outlook indicator dropped to negative 2.42, the lowest level in a year, and investment intentions remain well below long-term averages.
- Firms’ short-term inflation expectations have returned to end-of-last-year levels, and the share of companies planning for a recession has eased slightly to 28%.
- The Consumer Expectations Survey showed that 64.5% of Canadians expect a recession within 12 months, while spending intentions have weakened and job-loss fears have increased.
- Market pricing indicates a strong chance the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy rate at 2.75% when it announces its July 30 decision.