Overview

• German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl warns of increasing Russian hybrid attacks targeting NATO and Germany, including attempts to influence public opinion and elections.
• Kahl predicts that Russia could be militarily prepared for a potential confrontation with NATO by the late 2020s, focusing on undermining the alliance rather than large-scale land invasions.
• The BND assesses that Russia aims to test NATO's mutual defense commitments, potentially through limited provocations such as territorial disputes in the Baltics or Arctic regions.
• Russian leadership is reportedly skeptical about NATO's unity and U.S. commitment under Article 5, raising risks of future escalations.
• Kahl also highlights concerns about Russian efforts to exploit societal divisions in Germany, particularly around issues like climate and COVID-19, to influence February's Bundestag elections.