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BMW Cuts 2025 Outlook as China Weakens and Tariff Refunds Slip to 2026

Delayed EUUS duty reimbursements now push a large cash inflow into 2026, squeezing the Automotive unit’s 2025 cash generation.

Overview

  • The company issued a profit warning for 2025 and now guides an Automotive EBIT margin of 5% to 6%.
  • Automotive RoCE is lowered to 8% to 10%, with group earnings before tax expected to decline slightly versus last year.
  • Automotive free cash flow is now forecast to be above €2.5 billion in 2025, down from prior guidance of above €5 billion.
  • Customs duty reimbursements described as a high three-digit million euro sum are now anticipated to be received in 2026.
  • China sales matched last year in Q3 but are expected to weaken in Q4, while Europe and the Americas show year-to-date gains and shareholder returns remain in place ahead of a fuller update on Nov. 5.