Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its preliminary benchmark revision Tuesday for the 12 months through March 2025, aligning monthly payrolls with comprehensive QCEW tax records.
• Economists expect the revision to reduce reported employment by roughly 400,000 to 1,000,000 jobs, with many forecasts near 775,000 to 800,000 fewer positions.
• A cut near the high end would indicate the labor market had nearly stalled in early 2025, according to Bank of America Securities, suggesting weakness predated recent trade actions.
• Analysts cite likely overestimates from the BLS birth‑and‑death model, lower survey response rates, and the exclusion of undocumented workers from unemployment insurance data as key drivers.
• The release comes after President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated E. J. Antoni, as professional groups like NABE urge safeguarding the agency’s independence, while markets watch for implications for next week’s expected Fed rate cut.