Overview

• The September CPI report, originally slated for Oct. 15, will be published Oct. 24 to let the Social Security Administration calculate the 2026 adjustment.
• Independent estimates point to a 2.7% to 2.8% COLA, which would raise the average retiree’s payment by roughly $54.
• Medicare trustees project the standard Part B premium to rise about 11.6% to $206.50, a jump that could offset much of the increase for many beneficiaries under hold harmless rules.
• Most Bureau of Labor Statistics staff are furloughed and the Social Security Administration has reduced customer services, though benefit payments continue during the shutdown.
• COLA is based on the CPI-W for July through September, so the later CPI release likely shifts the announcement from mid-month to late October for roughly 72 to 72.5 million recipients.