Overview

• The downgrade cuts average monthly gains for April 2024 through March 2025 to roughly 71,000 from about 147,000, indicating the slowdown preceded recent tariff actions.
• Revisions were broad across industries, with large cuts in trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing and information.
• Futures pricing points to a near‑certain Fed rate cut next week, with markets leaning toward a quarter‑point move and allowing for a smaller chance of a half‑point.
• The estimate aligns payrolls to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages covering about 95% of jobs and reflects adjustments to the BLS birth‑and‑death model.
• The figure is preliminary, with final revisions due in February, and the scale of the change has intensified scrutiny of the BLS following the commissioner’s dismissal and E.J. Antoni’s nomination.