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yesterday

BLS Benchmark Shows 911,000 Fewer Jobs Through March, Marking Record Downward Revision

The weaker payroll base sharpens expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 8, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo
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Overview

  • Preliminary benchmarking cut April 2024–March 2025 payrolls by 911,000, lowering average monthly gains to roughly 71,000 from about 147,000.
  • The downgrades were widespread, with sizable reductions in retail, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing and information.
  • Markets and analysts linked the weaker backdrop to higher odds of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, though immediate market moves were modest.
  • The estimate aligns the monthly survey with unemployment-insurance tax records and will be finalized with the January jobs report in February 2026.
  • Successive large revisions have drawn political scrutiny of the BLS after President Trump removed Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated E.J. Antoni to lead the agency.