Overview

• Economists forecast a preliminary cut of roughly 400,000 to as many as 1,000,000 jobs for April 2024–March 2025, with many estimates clustered near 700,000–800,000.
• Tuesday’s preliminary figure signals likely revisions but leaves the published monthly series unchanged until the final benchmark release in February.
• The expected downgrade is tied to technical factors including potential overcounts from the business‑creation model, falling survey response rates, and QCEW’s exclusion of undocumented workers.
• The release follows evidence of a cooling labor market, including a June jobs decline and sizable downward revisions to May and June totaling about 258,000.
• The findings are feeding market focus on the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting and this week’s CPI, with many expecting rate cuts as professional groups urge protecting BLS independence after President Trump removed the agency’s commissioner and nominated E.J. Antoni.