Overview

• The preliminary revision aligns monthly payroll estimates with the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which covers roughly 95% of jobs, with a final benchmark due in February 2026.
• Economists had forecast a sizable reduction, and the new figure indicates hiring cooled earlier than thought, preceding the latest tariff actions.
• Traders largely expect a 25-basis-point reduction at the upcoming Fed meeting with some odds of a 50-basis-point move, while stocks were little changed and Treasury yields and the dollar moved modestly.
• The cut extends a pattern of large annual downgrades after last year's benchmark reduced the prior period by hundreds of thousands of jobs, spotlighting challenges like the birth‑and‑death model and lower survey response rates.
• The BLS is under heightened scrutiny after President Trump dismissed Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated E.J. Antoni, as professional associations defend the agency’s independence.