Overview
- Balchunas argues tulip mania collapsed permanently within a few years, whereas Bitcoin has rebounded across 17 years and multiple market shocks.
- He notes Bitcoin remains up roughly 250% over three years and gained 122% in 2024 despite a pullback of about 27% from October highs.
- He says non-yielding assets can retain value through scarcity, likening Bitcoin’s role to gold, fine art and rare stamps.
- He cites the 2024 halving’s issuance cuts, sizable spot-ETF assets under management, and on-chain accumulation by larger holders as supportive factors.
- He characterizes the recent decline as post-rally consolidation rather than evidence of a systemic collapse.