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48m ago

Bloomberg Data Show Pakistan Posts Second-Largest Drop in Sovereign Default Risk

Finance officials cite reforms, timely debt payments and progress with the IMF as driving a four‑quarter run of improving market perceptions.

Bloomberg ranked Pakistan the World’s Second fastest emerging economy
PM Shehbaz
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Overview

  • Bloomberg’s CDS-based analysis shows Pakistan’s implied default probability fell by about 2,200 basis points, or roughly 22%, from June 2024 to September 2025.
  • Pakistan ranks second to Türkiye for default-risk improvement and is the only emerging market with gains in each of the past four quarters.
  • Officials link the shift to macroeconomic stabilization, structural reforms, timely debt servicing, adherence to the IMF programme, and positive rating actions by S&P, Fitch and Moody’s.
  • The adviser to the finance minister says the drop outpaced major peers such as South Africa and El Salvador, while risks increased in countries including Argentina, Egypt and Nigeria.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb recently said talks with the IMF are heading in the right direction, underscoring the programme’s role in sustaining confidence.