Overview
- Bitwise published updated long‑term assumptions on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, raising its base‑case 2036 bitcoin price target to roughly $1.6 million, which implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from the firm’s chosen starting price.
- The forecast assumes institutions that control about $147 trillion could allocate 1% to 5% of portfolios to bitcoin, a range Bitwise says would translate into roughly $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of demand.
- Bitwise models bitcoin as part of a combined store‑of‑value market with gold and assumes bitcoin can capture about 25% of that market, a share that is central to its price path.
- The firm projects average volatility will decline to about 27.8% over the decade and estimates a moderate positive correlation with U.S. stocks of roughly 0.43, which it presents as evidence of market maturation.
- Bitwise flags material downside risks that could derail its forecast, naming regulatory shifts and technological threats such as quantum computing and cryptographic advances, and it notes the model is highly sensitive to starting prices and market‑share assumptions.