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Bitwise CIO Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Giving Way to a 10-Year Grind

He points to institutional allocation as a stabilizing force that favors slower, steadier gains.

Overview

  • Matt Hougan told CNBC that Bitcoin is shifting from halving-driven booms to a decade-long uptrend with lower volatility and solid, not spectacular, returns.
  • Recent data cited in the coverage show Bitcoin’s one-year volatility has fallen below Nvidia’s, supporting the maturation thesis.
  • Bitcoin is roughly 30% off its October peak near $125,000, a drawdown that analysts note is milder than past post-peak collapses.
  • Hougan attributes the resilience to slow, persistent institutional buying, including ETF-driven allocations and endowment participation, which absorbs sell pressure.
  • ReserveOne’s Sebastian Bea cautions that it is premature to declare cycles over, even as Hougan says policy clarity has reduced political impact and that further clarity legislation could unlock stronger rallies.