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Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle Dead as Institutional Inflows Set to Surge in 2026

Institutional due diligence wrapping up by year-end 2025 is set to pave the way for large-scale investments that decouple price trends from halving events.

Bitwise
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4 year cycle is dead: crypto now in ‘sustained steady boom,’ expert says
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Overview

  • Matt Hougan says Bitcoin halvings have lost half their market impact every four years, undermining traditional boom-and-bust drivers.
  • A five-to-ten-year trend of asset migration into Bitcoin ETFs began in 2024, establishing a new multi-year timeline for demand.
  • Positive interest rate cycles and regulatory strides since January 2025 have reduced systemic risks and improved market stability.
  • Wall Street firms accelerated crypto infrastructure build-outs after the GENIUS Act, securing plans for multibillion-dollar investments.
  • Institutional due diligence concluding by year-end 2025 will position pensions, endowments and ETFs to drive record inflows in 2026.