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Bitwise Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Pricing a Recession, Pointing to a COVID-Era Asymmetric Setup

A Bitwise model finds Bitcoin’s price implies a severe global growth slump, contrary to improving macro indicators.

Overview

  • Bitwise Europe’s André Dragosch argues Bitcoin is trading as if a recession were underway, echoing pessimism last seen during the early 2020 pandemic shock.
  • His model, built from international macro survey inputs, infers one of the worst growth-sentiment readings in years even as data point to a rebound.
  • He contends the divergence between price-implied gloom and strengthening fundamentals creates an asymmetric, potentially bullish opportunity.
  • Recent context includes a 17% slide over 30 days after an Oct. 5 all-time high near $125,100, a $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 10, and a brief drop below $90,000 on Nov. 20.
  • Cathie Wood has separately forecast that the current liquidity squeeze could reverse within weeks, citing anticipated Federal Reserve policy shifts.