Overview
- Grayscale’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook calls quantum computing a near‑term "red herring," saying it is unlikely to influence crypto prices next year.
- The firm cites estimates that a quantum computer able to break Bitcoin’s signatures is unlikely before 2030, even as post‑quantum planning continues.
- Developers are publishing Bitcoin‑specific proposals, including Blockstream research on hash‑based signature schemes tuned to keep signatures near 3–4 KB and verification costs manageable.
- Security analysts note known on‑chain exposure, with roughly 4 million BTC associated with revealed public keys or early address types that would be first at risk once practical key recovery arrives.
- Opinions on urgency diverge: Adam Back frames the threat as decades away, Charles Edwards warns delays past 2026–2028 could depress prices, and market watchers stress panic is a nearer risk than immediate protocol failure.