Overview
- Blockstream CEO Adam Back called Nic Carter’s posts about quantum threats “uninformed noise,” asserting developers are preparing quietly and that any real risk is likely decades away.
- Carter said he invested in Project Eleven after becoming “quantum pilled,” argued that risk assessments may be shifting faster than many expect, and noted he disclosed his stake in October.
- Technical reporting across the coverage states there is currently no quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography.
- Forecasts diverge sharply, with Capriole’s Charles Edwards warning of a possible two‑to‑nine‑year window and Vitalik Buterin citing a Metaculus median near 2040 with roughly a 20% chance before 2030.
- Developers and researchers emphasize preparation over panic, pointing to ongoing work on quantum‑resistant approaches and the multi‑year coordination needed to migrate users and address exposed public keys.