Overview
- Multiple on-chain reads show the long-term holder supply-change metric has turned positive for the first time since July.
- Checkonchain estimates roughly 33,000 BTC accumulated on a 30-day basis, while Darkfost’s Coinbase-adjusted read puts the flip near 10,700 BTC.
- Analysts say the shift eases a structural headwind and has previously preceded consolidation or recoveries, though outcomes remain uncertain.
- Long-term holders sold more than 1 million BTC during October’s 36% drawdown, matching miner stress as a major 2025 source of sell pressure.
- Institutional selling from U.S. spot ETFs has cooled in December, yet tax-driven trades and January events such as the MSCI decision, the Fed meeting, and U.S. funding deadlines could keep volatility elevated.