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Bitcoin’s Fragile Rally Falters After U.S. Strikes on Iran and Uneven ETF Flows

A jump in oil prices after U.S. military action has raised volatility and left spot‑ETF demand and a long negative Coinbase Premium as the key tests before July 14 CPI.

Overview

  • Bitcoin traded in the low‑to‑mid $60,000s and gave back gains after U.S. strikes on Iran and reported tanker attacks pushed oil sharply higher and rattled equities.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs showed volatile flows in early July with a large inflow one day and net outflows the next, and those swings are now a dominant driver of price moves.
  • The Coinbase Premium has been negative for about 50 straight days, which market trackers say signals weaker U.S. buying pressure compared with overseas venues.
  • On‑chain measures show quiet accumulation and falling exchange reserves but remain negative overall, so long‑term holder buying has not yet confirmed a durable rally.
  • Traders are focused on the July 14 U.S. CPI print because gasoline pass‑through into inflation and subsequent Fed messaging could decide whether Bitcoin retests $70,000 or slides back toward lower support.