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Bitcoin’s 90‑Day Correlation With Gold Hits Six‑Year High

U.S. Treasury debt repurchases and rising long‑term yields have pushed investors into both assets but analysts say the link is fragile and depends on yields, dollar moves and ETF flows.

Overview

  • Bitwise data show the 90‑day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to roughly 0.50–0.55, the strongest co‑movement since 2020.
  • The recent move followed U.S. Treasury announcements to expand long‑dated debt repurchases and a run‑up in long‑term Treasury yields that renewed investor concern about sovereign debt and currency debasement.
  • Bitcoin rallied more than 20% in the weeks after the Treasury action while gold rose about 5% and equities fell, a pattern that weakened Bitcoin’s short‑term ties to U.S. tech stocks and the S&P 500.
  • Market mechanics differ: gold’s recent surge in volatility narrowed the usual volatility gap with Bitcoin, while BTC’s resilience reflects cleaner positioning after liquidations and steady spot ETF demand.
  • Analysts stress the convergence is provisional, noting the 90‑day measure shows co‑movement not causation and that changes in yields, the dollar or ETF flows could quickly reverse the relationship; the current pattern echoes the 2020 stimulus era but may not be permanent.