Overview
- Bitcoin traded near the mid-$86,000s after a 24-hour range of roughly $85,000 to $90,000, with sharp swings that triggered nearly $400 million in liquidations on Dec. 17.
- Consensus expects November CPI at 3.1% year over year and core at about 3.1%, a high-stakes release made more pivotal by the canceled October report during the shutdown.
- Markets price at least two 25-basis-point cuts next year even as CME FedWatch shows about a 73% chance of no January cut, reflecting uncertainty over the near-term policy track.
- The 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4% continues to favor fixed income over risk assets, a backdrop that has complicated sustained rallies in bitcoin.
- Flows and positioning highlight crosscurrents, with $457.3 million of net inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs led by Fidelity and BlackRock, while downside hedging has built and an MSCI review could prompt as much as $2.8 billion in passive outflows for crypto-exposed firms.