Overview

• This week’s U.S. producer price index fell 0.1% in August, helping push Bitcoin over $114,000 and reinforcing market odds of a 25 bp rate cut next week.
• Pricing on CME FedWatch shows roughly 88%–92% probability of a quarter‑point cut, while prediction markets keep a smaller chance for a 50 bp move.
• Technicians say an inverse head‑and‑shoulders breakout points toward roughly $120,000 if momentum holds, though others warn of wedge and flag risks near $115,000 resistance.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $1.1 billion in net inflows over the past 10 days, signaling renewed institutional and retail demand.
• Derivatives and flows remain balanced, with a Futures Pressure Score near 18% suggesting no heavy short build‑up as rising miner outflows are offset by exchange outflows indicating accumulation.