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Bitcoin Tests Recovery After Mid‑October Capitulation Below $80K

The rebound to about $81–82K leaves price driven by ETF flows, large whale withdrawals and a key moving‑average cross that will decide whether sellers or buyers regain control.

Overview

  • A sharp slide on Thursday that took BTC under $80,000 triggered roughly $930 million to $948 million in leveraged liquidations, mostly of long positions, which amplified the fall before the market bounced.
  • The price recovered into the low‑$80,000s after comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh were read as less likely to signal an immediate rate hike and the CME FedWatch odds for an October hike fell sharply.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $760 million in net outflows since October 7 and funds posted roughly $82 million of outflows on October 16, creating ongoing selling pressure into the market.
  • On‑chain data show large whales moving coins off exchanges with Binance whale outflows rising to over 15,000 BTC and total whale-held balances climbing toward three million BTC, which reduces exchange supply but does not prove buying demand.
  • Traders are watching $80,000 for support and the converging 100/200‑hour moving averages near $82–82.7K as the immediate pivot; breaking above those levels would clear shorter resistance while failing to hold support risks renewed downside ahead of the Fed meeting on Oct. 27–28.